It's '2024*' Delegates Stupid!

The Media continues to amaze me on it's total lack of any sense of truth in reporting on this Democratic Primary.  This morning George Stephanopoulos asked Hillary how she would 'overturn the will of Pledged Delegates'.  What the hell does that mean?  He also implied doing so would be somehow 'unethical'.  Well, George, there is no will of the 'Pledged Delegates' unless one candidate happens to have 2024* of them going to the Convention.  I don't know how many times this has to be drilled into the minds of the Media!  Setting up an expectation that merely having the most pledged delegates entitles one to the nomination is irresponsible.  

Hillary completely understands the rules and that's why she is staying in the race.   It is the media that is trying to present a picture that she is evil and only trying to destroy Obama by continuing to campaign.  She has a tremendous goal to achieve to win but I am truly impressed by her strength to carry on!  

If only the 'men', both Black and White, in the media would recognize their own 'sexism' when reporting on this race  they would stop trying to make Hillary look like the 'insane woman' trying to destroy a man!  No matter who your candidate is it's 2024* delegates stupid that entitles a candidate to the nomination not merely lead in 'Pledged Delegates'!  That's the real math not some supporter's mathematical calculation!  Can we move on now and stop all argument on this point George?

* There are some who say it is 2025.



Display:


It's 2208! (2.00 / 2)

I wonder: the DNC chairman (Dean) repeatedly said Michigan and Florida will be seated. Shouldn't all media organizations update the nominating threshold up to 2208? If not, why not?


by eumc on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:28:51 AM EST

Re: It's 2208! (none / 0)

Yes. Obama will seat them after Hillary drops out, then goes off somewhere and has a Nixon-style nervous breakdown, "BILL YOU TOLD ME I COULD BE PRESIDENT AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!"


by Democratic Unity on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:41:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's 2208! (none / 0)

She will never drop out.


by eumc on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:47:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's 2208! (2.00 / 1)

If she doesn't get enough, she will drop out.  That is reality.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:02:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's 2208! (none / 0)

Are you saying that she'll stay in until 2024? Like...the year 2024?


by Democratic Unity on Sun May 04, 2008 at 12:43:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's 2208! (none / 0)

till the end of time


by eumc on Sun May 04, 2008 at 01:09:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's '2024*' Delegates Stupid! (2.00 / 3)

There's no confusion on George's part or anyone's.  If the majority of the pledged delegates go for Obama, and a greater majority of superdelegates goes for Clinton, then the superdelegates will have overturned the will of the pledged delegates.  The logic is sound.  

Now there's not necessarily anything wrong with that.  The superdelegates can choose whomever they want.  It seems to me that a lot of superdelegates think they should go with the pledged delegates leader.  It is a question primarily of politics (and political consequences) and secondarily a question of the ethos of the individual superdelegate.

I don't think there are many of us out here who are genuinely confused about this.


I like baked beans.
by SpideyDem on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:33:09 AM EST

Re: It's '2024*' Delegates Stupid! (none / 0)

well, there are many here and on the MSM that call that "stealing"

so, I don't know if they really understand it


by colebiancardi on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:54:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's '2024*' Delegates Stupid! (2.00 / 2)

It's entirely about how such a victory would be perceived, and I don't think the MSM is wrong in questioning whether an election in which the will of the voters, as expressed through the pledged delegates, is overturned.  

No one is arguing that it's outside the rules.  It clearly is not.  But it does harm the legitimacy of the nominee, if s/he wins in such a scenario.


Donate to Obama, Today!
by freedom78 on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:53:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's '2024*' Delegates Stupid! (none / 0)

You guys are being obtuse.

If the job of the superdel is simply to rubber stamp the will of the pledged dels, then they wouldn't exist. The rule would be simply that the delegate leader gets the nomination.

Keep yapping all you want, but what I say is true.


Until recently I was selling drugs, and now I'm selling Obama T-shirts.
by switching sides on Sun May 04, 2008 at 04:12:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's '2024*' Delegates Stupid! (none / 0)

I'm not being obtuse, and I agree that the superdelegates don't exist to confirm the will of the pledged delegates.  I wouldn't argue for an instant that what you said is untrue.

But there's a difference between winning via the rules and those rules being perceived as legit.    

All together, the system is very strange.  Pledged delegates aren't REALLY pledged, so why do we NEED SDs?  If a candidate had a pledged delegate lead,  and then proceeded to do something outrageously stupid (in keeping with this fine year, let's use hookers as an easy example), then those pledged delegates are not bound.  Yet if there isn't a major reason for the PDs to switch, and the SDs overrule a PD majority, the nominee will lack democratic legitimacy.  Perhaps you don't think it SHOULD be so, but it's tough to say that some won't have this opinion, to the nominee's electoral detriment.  It's an incredibly convoluted system, and it seems designed to cause problems.      


Donate to Obama, Today!
by freedom78 on Sun May 04, 2008 at 07:10:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's '2024*' Delegates Stupid! (none / 0)

'designed to cause problems'

Well, we are democrats, heh.


Until recently I was selling drugs, and now I'm selling Obama T-shirts.
by switching sides on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:18:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's '2024*' Delegates Stupid! (2.00 / 2)

They understand it.  It's just a reflection of how those people feel about the ethics of such a nomination.  My personal ethics would say that the pledged delegate winner should be the nominee unless that person is truly, truly unelectable (i.e. caught in bed with dead girl/live boy).  Not all undeclared supers feel that way and not all will go for Obama.  I think more than enough will though and Obama will be the nominee barring the dead girl/live boy thing (no, not Wright, not Ayres, not bittergate, not his bowling score, not ordering the orange juice at the cafe...).


I like baked beans.
by SpideyDem on Sun May 04, 2008 at 12:04:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Stealing (none / 0)

It's not stealing, it is the "rules".


by del on Sun May 04, 2008 at 08:42:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's '2024*' Delegates Stupid! (2.00 / 1)

The media pushes this false narrative all the time, and further distorts the amount of support for Hillary by pretending that Florida and Michigan do not exist and will not be counted. Perhaps many of the Obama supporters have bought into this false narrative that has been provided by media which are actively rooting their candidate on. Fortunately, the public is pretty smart and Hillary will get the nod at the convention, pick Obama as her running mate, and win the White House.


by northstars on Sun May 04, 2008 at 10:45:51 AM EST

Re: It's '2024*' Delegates Stupid! (none / 0)

according to, um, the DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE, florida and michigan do not exist and will not count. therefore, the only people who count them are the increasingly desperate hrc supporters...


by jbill on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:01:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's '2024*' Delegates Stupid! (none / 0)

That's patently false: Dean's just said for the fourth time that they will be seated. So it's 2208, they're still debating HOW to seat MI & FL.  


by eumc on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:28:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's '2024*' Delegates Stupid! (none / 0)

LOL

Delegations can be seated, that doesn't mean that they will influence the outcome in the way that you are hoping.


No McCain in '08
by Renie on Sun May 04, 2008 at 12:21:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's '2024*' Delegates Stupid! (none / 0)

You seem gleeful that MI and FL will be disenfranchised.

How Rovian.


Until recently I was selling drugs, and now I'm selling Obama T-shirts.
by switching sides on Sun May 04, 2008 at 04:13:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's '2024*' Delegates Stupid! (2.00 / 1)

Even if a person decides that the vote of the people should be irrelevant in the superdelegates' decisions (which I don't), the math just doesn't add up for her.

In order to win she would need to win 60% of the rest of the pledged delegates in every single contest from here on out, AND 59% of the rest of the superdelegates.  Every time she fails to win a state by 20% of the delegates her task becomes more and more difficult.


No McCain in '08
by Renie on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:15:46 AM EST

Re: It's '2024*' Delegates Stupid! (none / 0)

You are correct ONLY if FL and MI count for nothing. Not counting them would be a violation of the party rules. Counting them would reduce the delegate difference to single digits. Counting half of them seriously reduces the distance.

Hillary will get the nod. Obama demand VP.


by redwagon on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:21:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

It's the Process, Stupid. (2.00 / 3)

Before it became Hillary's only chance to close the gap, Hillary said that FL & MI count for nothing.   One of Hillary's top advisors voted FOR sanctions against FL & MI.

The Democratic process isn't Calvinball.


by Virginia Liberal on Sun May 04, 2008 at 11:55:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Calvinball? To what is that a reference? n/t (none / 0)


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Sun May 04, 2008 at 01:09:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Calvinball? To what is that a reference? n/t (none / 0)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calvinball# Calvinball


by Virginia Liberal on Sun May 04, 2008 at 01:11:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

How could I have forgotten about Calvinball? (none / 0)

I read those comics all the time.  The memory can sometimes fail you greatly.  Thanks for the refresher.


John McCain wants you to be poor!
by nklein on Sun May 04, 2008 at 01:14:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's '2024*' Delegates Stupid! (2.00 / 2)

I'm not happy with what happened in FL and MI, but it is what it is.  There is no way that those votes are going to be counted as is.  They agreed that the votes wouldn't count, changing that agreement now isn't going to happen.  I believe that a decision on how to include them will be made after this is decided.


No McCain in '08
by Renie on Sun May 04, 2008 at 12:13:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's '2024*' Delegates Stupid! (none / 0)

HRC did not agree that the votes would not count; she did agree not to campaign there.  There is a difference.


by TinaH1963 on Sun May 04, 2008 at 07:12:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's '2024*' Delegates Stupid! (2.00 / 1)

Again, this is a case of media narrative vs. the actual rules.  It seems the only people who actually understand the gravity of the Michigan/Florida situation are the rules gurus on MyDD.  

The rules don't call for excluding Michigan and Florida mandatorily.  They give several committies the option of incorporating their votes with a suggested penalty of a 50% reduction in pledged delegates (note that superdelegates would likely end up seated and voting because of the way the rules and DNC charter are written).  

The RBC is meeting at the end of May to handle the first appeal.  The committee's composition leans Hillary so I'd expect to see something very favorable emerge in her favor at the end of May.  It will be perfect timing too.  Almost no one understands exactly how the rules effect MI/FL and by the end of May, Hillary will be shining from a huge string of successes.  

I don't think most Americans want to see Florida's votes suppressed again and they don't want Michigan to be disenfranchised either.  The only people who want to suppress the votes are people who love Barack Obama and are upset that he lost those states.  The media was in his back pocket all Winter, hence the coverage of this issue being wildly (and unrealistically) in his favor.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Sun May 04, 2008 at 05:11:54 PM EST

Re: It's '2024*' Delegates Stupid! (none / 0)

The winning number fluctuates around 2024 to 2025 because superdelegates are added (such as Foster and Cayazoux winning Congressional seats) and lost (deaths, resignations, etc.)

It is currently at 2024.5 to win.


by Skaje on Mon May 05, 2008 at 03:25:41 AM EST


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