2024 Represents the Will of the People

For the Record:  I don't support either Clinton or Obama!

The rules of the Democratic Party are that if a candidate goes to the Convention with less than 2024 delegates they are not entitled to the nomination.  The Super Delegates have no standard to adhere to when voting for a candidate other than their own judgment.  The news organizations are completely wrong to suggest the Super Delegates are bound by the popular vote or a small lead of pledged delegates.  Clinton and Obama knew these rules at the start of the Democratic Primaries.  To change any of these rules now to favor one campaign over the other will end in a Democratic defeat in November.  

Obama has demonstrated his inability to win big states with primaries as most of his delegates were won in caucuses.  The loss in Ohio is truly significant and Texas verified this trend.  Obama should have trounced Clinton in Ohio as conditions were definitely in his favor at this late stage of the primaries.  Obama out spent Clinton, was holding rallies in stadiums, won 11 straight primaries, and had the news cycle.  A loss in Pennsylvania will put to rest any claim Obama has on the nomination as the Democrats can hardly win a General Election loosing more than one of the major industrial states.  It's not easy to see the truth.

Clinton has a problem being not as inspiring or likable but she does appeal to the working class.  There is also the Bush Clinton Bush Clinton problem.  Her husband also seems to be a liability.  She will unite Conservatives and precipitate a larger Republican turnout.  The vote in 2002 to give Bush the authority to use military force plays heavily against her in certain parts of the Democratic Party but she is the blue collar candidate.  A loss in Pennsylvania will play heavily against her claim on the nomination.

There are a lot of `fantasy' matchups against McCain but I can't understand why people put any kind of credibility in these useless exercises in futility.  The primaries have proven beyond the shadow of a doubt the danger of putting any value on polls.  



Display:


Re: 2024 Represents the Will of the People (none / 0)

Only Hillary can represent the will of the people.


by carbocation on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 07:52:09 PM EST

Re: 2024 Represents the Will of the People (none / 0)

?


by marcotom on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 07:53:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

gloppala fraoowwtaaoppp (none / 0)

no?

I thought we were making random unsupported statements.


-- be excellent to each other
by kindthoughts on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 10:12:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2024 Represents the Will of the People (2.00 / 0)

How can you possibly argue that Obama was supposed to win Ohio? I just don't get that. Clinton was ahead by 20% just two weeks before the primary. He didn't quite catch up. Momentum is inexistent in this race and always was throughout the primary. Both candidates have their demographics that support them and they are different depending on what region you are looking at. They haven't changed at all though. Obama's demographics are just a tiny bit larger than Clitons, hence, he is ahead and will be at the end of the process.

What the supers base their decision on is whole other story. I guess most of them will go with the pledged delegate leader though, just because that seems to be the safest way out for them.


by marcotom on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 07:53:10 PM EST

Re: 2024 Represents the Will of the People (2.00 / 0)

And Obama didn't have the news cycle, sorry, that is not true. Clinton dominated the last few days on the news, he only had bad news. That's why we saw a 10% margin instead of maybe a 5% margin.


by marcotom on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 07:55:03 PM EST

Overturning the Will of the People? (none / 0)

Question:  "How can you win the nomination when the math looks so bleak for you?"

Senator Clinton:  "It doesn't look bleak at all. I have a very close race with Senator Obama. There are elected delegates, caucus delegates and superdelegates, all for different reasons, and they're all equal in their ability to cast their vote for whomever they choose. Even elected and caucus delegates are not required to stay with whomever they are pledged to. This is a very carefully constructed process that goes back years, and we're going to follow the process."

From Newsweek, http://www.newsweek.com/id/120062/page/2 .

This came after Harold Ickes. who's responsible for the MI and FL debacle.  This is the Politico story of what Harold Ickes said.;
"On a conference call with reporters, Clinton aide Harold Ickes noted that pledged delegates aren't formally bound to vote for the candidate they're elected to support.

'That binding rule was knocked out in 1980,' he said. Ickes didn't actually suggest that the Clinton campaign would court pledged delegates, something they've disavowed; he just stated the rule. Still, an interesting note."

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0 308/Ickes_Pledged_but_not_bound.html

And that came after this, which was the result of a conversation that Roger Simon at Politico had with a Clinton aide;
"Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign intends to go after delegates whom Barack Obama has already won in the caucuses and primaries if she needs them to win the nomination.
This strategy was confirmed to me by a high-ranking Clinton official on Monday. And I am not talking about superdelegates, those 795 party big shots who are not pledged to anybody. I am talking about getting pledged delegates to switch sides."  Roger Simon, Politico.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/020 8/8583.html


"Behold, I send you out as sheep amidst the wolves! Therefore, be as wise as a serpent, And as harmless as a dove."
by Setrak on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 07:56:17 PM EST

erm.... (none / 0)

we do not need no education,
we do not need no thought control
no sarcasm in the smoke rooms
Math guys leave Hillary Alone

All in all we are just another delegate in the pool


-- be excellent to each other
by kindthoughts on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 10:14:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2024 Represents the Will of the People (2.00 / 0)

And, finally, the big industrial state myth is a joke. You are really saying that primary votes = GE votes? So blue collar workers would decide that McCain is better for them economically than Obama? Highly unlikely. They do like Clinton better than him, because, mostly (that's a guess) they still think very well of the Clinton years. That's their right and they should vote accordingly - but to conclude anything about the GE from that seems quite strange.


by marcotom on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 07:57:31 PM EST

Re: 2024 Represents the Will of the People (none / 0)

No what is strange to me is to think that even though they didn't vote for him in the primary that he would all of a sudden become acceptable in the GE.  That won't happen.  They would have already voted for him if they were inclined to do it at all.


democrat voter
by democrat voter on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 08:25:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

you realize of course (none / 0)

that the EXACT same argument can be made about Clinton.

You are seriously just a fan of random unsupported statements.


-- be excellent to each other
by kindthoughts on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 10:15:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2024 Represents the Will of the People (2.00 / 1)

Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan are essential to any Democratic victory.  Regardless of the fantasy league electoral maps I have seen loosing just two of these states will put McCain in the White House.  Obama should have won Ohio and Texas the fact he didn't shows he is not as strong a candidate as some might think.  There are no caucuses in the General Election so if at this stage in the primary process a candidate is showing weakness in large states with primaries it is a cause for concern.  If Obama can win Pennsylvania it will go a long way towards convincing Super Delegates he can win in November.  If he loses it will most certainly weigh heavily in their decision to go against him.


by orionwest on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 08:29:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2024 Represents the Will of the People (2.00 / 0)

Obama has not suggested that SuperDelegates should be required to vote for the candidate with the most pledged delegates, rather his campaign (and many others) have pointed out that if super delegates (party insiders) overturn the choice that VOTERS have made, it will divide the party like nothing else.

Suggesting what superdelegates should do is not akin to "changing the rules" (like repeatedly saying that FL and MI's delegates should be seated).

Also, losing a state to a rival democrat in a primary is not akin to losing it in the general election. Do you think Obama would lose California or New York if he were the nominee??

Ohio was Hillary country, and she had 20 point leads just 3 weeks before the primary there. To say that Obama should have trounced Clinton there is ridiculous.

The only path Clinton has to the nomination is through attacking Obama to the point where superdelegates might see him as unelectable and be compelled to move en-masse to her side.

Want to have trouble winning a GE? Try pissing off about half of your party by destroying their candidate and robbing him of the nomination.


by smoothmedia on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 08:04:48 PM EST

Re: 2024 Represents the Will of the People (none / 0)

Robbing him of the nomination?  He doesn't have the nomination so how can he be robbed of something he doesn't have?  You are crazy to think he owns this nomination, or that we Owe it to him.  Are you as arrogant as he appearently is as well?


democrat voter
by democrat voter on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 08:21:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2024 Represents the Will of the People (none / 0)

Nowhere have I suggested that he is owed the nomination.

However, when it is a near mathematical impossibility for Clinton to overtake Obama in pledged delegates it's safe to say that he has the nomination.

Spin it anyway you like, and huff and puff about momentum and big states till the cows come home. Hillary cannot catch Obama in delagates, and the candidate with the most delagates will win the nomination at the convention.

For Clinton to change that she will have to beat him outside the boundries of traditional democracy (courting party insiders / challenging FL & MI decision legally). If either of these routes is taken, I can guarantee you that Obama's supported WILL feel robbed.

Clinton should have dropped out long ago. Her only path to victory is by severely damaging the party.


by smoothmedia on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 09:16:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2024 Represents the Will of the People (none / 0)

Show me one rule based on pledged delegates for nomination?

If you can not show me one single rule, your posts doesnt mean anything except hatred.


by Sandeep on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 11:37:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2024 Represents the Will of the People (none / 0)

Hatred? Are you kidding me?

The rule is, if any candidate amasses 2,025 delegates, they secure the nomination. However, if neither candidate manages this, the nomination goes to the candidate with the most delegates.

Thus, whoever has the lead in PLEDGED delegates going into the convention will be the nominee unless the super delegates overturn that.

My point is simply that Clinton CANNOT catch Obama in pledged delegates, and therefore the only way for her to win is to make Obama seem unelectable (attacking him) and thus win over the superdelegates.

Otherwise, a large enough number of the superdelegates will support obama to give him the nomination.

I'm not trying to be hateful, but sometimes the truth hurts.

I'd like to hear a Clinton supporter give me a REALISTIC way that Clinton can win the nomination.


by smoothmedia on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 01:19:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

that really hurts coming from (none / 0)

supporter of Missis Inevitability.

(And yet again you are trolling)


-- be excellent to each other
by kindthoughts on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 10:16:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: that really hurts coming from (none / 0)

What is this obsession with trolls and trolling? Arent you trolling to brand someone as troll?

Let people say what they want to say. As you say "be excellent to each other".


by Sandeep on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 11:36:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

its not an obsession (none / 0)

I keep seeing "democrat voter" attack and attack without a lot of substance. There are a number of Hillary supporters who would not call troll. This guy/gal on the other hand is pretty vile.


-- be excellent to each other
by kindthoughts on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 01:24:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

for example: (none / 0)

"Are you as arrogant as he appearently is as well?"

the poster now insulted obama and that person he is replying to.


-- be excellent to each other
by kindthoughts on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 01:26:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2024 Represents the Will of the People (none / 0)

Obama has won caucuses, because Clinton's voters are not as represented in them, and the Obama supporters are bullies, heard that they attack Clinton supporters claiming why don't you support Obama, are you a racist?  In the privacy of the voting booth the voters can and do make a different choice.  Also women may vote for Hillary without their husband's knowing in the voting booth.  Obama has shown that he doesn't appeal to the down scale democrats, if he cannot pull them in now, how can he do it with McCain in the race?  Obama actually needs Clinton not the other way around.  If he were not in the race even the AAs would be voting for her, so he is appealing to youth voters and the far left anti-war voters who didn't have a problem voting for Kerry even though he supported the war in 2004.  This war vote is such a myth anyway  In the GE being anti-war makes you a wimp to a lot of voters.  No one wants to vote for someone who says America is wrong, no matter how badly we want out of Iraq, a man who blames America just can't win the GE.  It has been proven in the past with a anti-war candidate who lost miserably in the fall.

What we need is someone telling Obama that he should accept the VP slot, he should do that because if he doesn't and he gets the nomination, he will lose this fall.  There are just too many reasons to vote against him, but not having enough experience will do for most voters.  The presidency is won or lost with older voters, not far left and kids.  It disn't work in the past and it won't work now.  Obama is too arrogant by half and people see it, people like my mother who is not a political junky but said to me she couldn't stand Obama for that reason, how many people would he lose for one reason or another.  He needs more experience.  The VP would be just what he needs to become acceptable for those voters down the line.


democrat voter
by democrat voter on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 08:14:31 PM EST

Re: 2024 Represents the Will of the People (none / 0)

I've seen 2024 and 2025 referenced by the media.
Anyone know why different numbers are used?

Hillary/Obama08
by annefrank on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 08:18:03 PM EST

Them's the rules (none / 0)

Abide by all rules or abide my none.  Applies to both candidates.

Clinton
1.  "Not as inspiring or likable  ..." BUT she is inspiring in that she would be the first woman POTUS.  Also, her lack of likability plays into the role of a Woman of Strength.  Most people I KNOW both like and dislike women of strength.

2.  "There is also the Bush Clinton Bush Clinton problem."  Yes - I know people who say that in and of itself signals "more of the same" and people want this country to go in a different direction.

3.  "Her husband also seems to be a liability."
One assurance:  she will be head of the CIA and FBI and if Bill "acts up", I'd get him to do a test about waterboarding, first hand inspection of its effects.  Also, he might be very beneficial in inspecting those "rendition" camps.  Oops, anybody know where Bill went?

4.  "She will unite Conservatives and precipitate a larger Republican turnout."  IMHO, either will precipitate this.

5.  "The vote in 2002 to give Bush the authority to use military force plays heavily against her in certain parts of the Democratic Party ..." as in this person!  She HAS to explain her rationale.  Personally, I made the same decision Obama did - and I didn't have an NIE to read either.  So "my gut" and "Obama's gut" agree.  I'VE HAD ALL THE POTUS WINGING IT AND GOING BY HIS GUT THAT I WANT TO HANDLE!  Give me intelligence in the White House or give me ..... Jack Daniels!

6.  "A loss in Pennsylvania will play heavily against her claim on the nomination."  Yes, as in the majority of the Democratic party leadership will tell her to take her marbles and go home.

This is so much more fun and pleasant than that "other blog".


by Southern Mouth on Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 08:27:25 PM EST

2024 Does Not Represents the Will of the People (none / 0)

It represents he will of the people + superdelegates. I wrote a diary to this effect yesterday:

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/3/9/61045 /52783


by TheSilverMonkey on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 12:48:06 AM EST


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