Obama's Speech could have won him the nomination!

Obama's speech was one of the historic moments of this campaign for the presidency.  If only he had given it before the South Carolina Primary it may well have propelled Obama to the nomination.  As it is it looks to be a speech given out of political calculation.  He gave this speech only when his poll numbers started to slip because of Reverend Wright.  Prior to that he thought 'plausible deniability' would work.  Before and during the South Carolina Primary Obama had no interest in giving a speech on race but actually fed the beast of racism.  We all remember how President Clinton's 'Fairytale Remark' was totally distorted by the Obama Campaign from a comment about Barrack's anti-war record to a comment about his run for the presidency.  Hillary's comment about Dr. Martin Luther King suffered the same fate.  

Obama has made the same mistake many other politicians make by setting themselves up on the pedestal of being different and somehow more trustworthy.  He has lost that high ground which is the basis of his campaign.  Americans, for all that they might be, despise people who try to fool them on that score.  The polls are reflecting those feelings as Obama's numbers continue to downtrend.  Obama couldn't afford to lose his credibility and win the nomination.  The Democratic Party now has a very big problem going into the Convention, Obama is the weaker candidate in the frontrunner position.  

Maybe it isn't fair to condemn Obama for Reverend Wright's statements but that is reality.  This is not a run for student council president but for the most powerful office in the world.  People make the decision to vote for a candidate on the trust they feel for that candidate.  Republicans won't waste any time pounding the Wright issue and it will be effective.  This along with the Florida and Michigan debacle in which Obama is on the side of not counting the votes makes for great political ads.  Timing is everything in politics and the timing of Oabama's brilliant speech on 'Race in America' may be a case of too little too late.  

Disclaimer: I don't support Clinton or Obama



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It's a gamble (2.00 / 1)

It could still go either way. The media are trying to tear him down after having built him up, which is standard fair for them. They did the same to Hillary Clinton, built her up all last summer and tore her down starting last fall and especially after Iowa.

They've already decided, McCain is the winner.


Bill Foster would agree, Barack Obama has coat tails.
by Walt Starr on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 09:07:28 AM EST

Wishful thinking (none / 0)

I don't see the downtrend in the polls. Obama may have peaked, but it's just wishful thinking on your part to say he's downtrending

http://www.pollster.com/08-US-Dem-Pres-P rimary.php


by brit on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 09:39:32 AM EST

Re: Wishful thinking (none / 0)

There has been a down trend, no doubt about it.  Pollster and RCP takes about a full week to grab any movement because of how they anaylize polls.  Thats why there really not that useful in getting up to the minute information but decent in accessing long term trends.

By next week you'll see the Obama dump on the polls wheather he has risen back or not.


by njc2b5 on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 09:53:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wishful thinking (none / 0)

"By next week you'll see the Obama dump on the polls wheather he has risen back or not."

Speculation.


by SocialDem on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 09:58:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The variations you talk about (none / 0)

...are MOE and statistical noise. Whether there is a dump, we'll see, but there's no evidence of it yet.
by brit on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 09:59:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's Speech could have won him the nominati (none / 0)

MSNBC just showed the new "swiftboating" ad against Obama.
This is only going to increase.....
Think about the air time that now Wright is getting........
by jbohio on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 09:47:50 AM EST

More wishful thinking (none / 0)

...Obama's speech is now nearly 2 million hits and still rising. 4 million watched the speech go live. People are talking about it in the streets. It's not all good for Obama. Wright opened a Pandora's box. But it's not all bad either. Let them swiftboat him now all they like. It was coming. But Obama's pivot defence was pretty impressive, even to Republicans like Huckabee
by brit on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 10:01:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's Speech could have won him the nominati (none / 0)

While I agree he should have given this speech earlier now was the best time for him.  As far as the Wright thing hurting him it is still way to early to tell.  My predication is that if he is the nominee it will have little affect on the GE because Democrats can just bring up Hagee, or Pat Robertson and the total flip-flop McCain pulled in regards to his relationship to the religious right.

Now I understand it is not the same as having your own pastor  say completely wrong stuff but it is similar.

I just wish you wouldn't treat your arguments as fact.  This is just your opinion and until the time comes and if it comes we will not know for sure if this hurt him.


by SocialDem on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 10:03:24 AM EST

Re: Obama's Speech could have won him the nominati (none / 0)

FYI

At http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/ Obama has a national lead in all recent polls but one - the Gallup tracking poll.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 10:22:09 AM EST


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